Manajemen Pemasaran : Resiko Pasar

1. INTRODUCTION

The reduction in the price of heating oil (BBM), especially the government premium, is a measure in response to the fall in the world price of oil. As of December 1, 2008, many predict a price increase. There are several traditional markets in Balikpapan, especially in Indonesia.
Although the drop in oil prices is meant to boost the oil sector, the drop in prices of premium watches is actually not that big, only Rp.
Another factor is that many dealers, especially those selling factory-made goods, still sell the goods according to stock, so the price has not changed. The fact is that if the stock at the seller runs out, the distributor will notify in advance about the price of the goods. Another influential condition is the celebration of Eid al-Adha which falls at the beginning of the week on December 2. This strengthens the hypothesis that product conditions do not affect market price fluctuations even though food prices are stable.
The economic situation in 2009 is predicted to be worse than in 2008, because economic growth is estimated at 4-5%, even pessimistic forecasts predict that growth will be 3.5%, in 2008 it will be 3.5%. In 2009 it fell to four percent, estimated at around 100 million workers. Business actors will be encouraged to respond to their market, from an export-oriented start to the domestic market even though the benefits achieved are not as great from exports.
Meanwhile, market players are currently facing a major movement in the market due to the conditions that have occurred due to the increase in fuel prices, such as: B. the value of securities, foreign currencies, commodity prices and exchange rates .
Based on the above context, a problem arises: "Market risk management taking into account potential losses caused by changes in market prices due to movements in the real sector"

2. FOUNDATION THEORY
Risk is a natural thing in a business. Management risk taking is something that should be done by the company for the company. However, many companies do not manage risk properly and do not understand the risks they are taking.
There are many measures of risk itself , including equity, profit, or cash flow risk. The size depends on your company, whether it is more focused on balance sheets, usability ratios or cash flow.
Monetary risk is an uncertainty about future events. A person or a company can take risks by: avoiding risk , controlling risk, retaining risk or transferring risk . Risk avoidance (risk avoidance ) is the practice of reducing risk by limiting or delaying participation in an activity. Risk control is the practice of minimizing the frequency or severity of hazards from risk activities. Stop risk or eskejal (risk retention) is the practice of hedging a company with its own funds, for example a company may realize that it is cheaper to pay for its investment at its own expense. When the potential for more risks cannot be hedged or controlled, companies sometimes choose the risk option (risk transfer). Risk transfer is the practice of transferring the risk of one company to another company – say, an insurance company.
Market risk , namely in the form of pressure, sudden movements, market prices, such as the value of securities, foreign exchange, commodity prices and interest rate levels. Market risk is the potential loss caused by fluctuations in market prices and yields. Market risk is very different from bank deposits, custodians, trading activities, derivative securities. The risk market system is within the risk limit actually using hedging techniques (envelopes). Bank Indonesia owns any product using the trademark marketed by Bank Indonesia.
Saxaimana market risk under Bank Indonesia regulations Option price risk.
There are four standard market risk factors , among others
The mode of risk , which is part of the rights of the owner of the company (investor), is limited to assets and limited liability, depending on the type of company in the form of an individual corporation (Individual). , Partnership (Cupero) (Righteous Company)
Interest rate risk Interest rate risk is the risk arising from the relative value of an asset, such as an asset. B. loans or bonds that have deteriorated due to the setting of interest rates. In general, when interest rates rise, bond prices continue to rise and vice versa. Interest rate risk is typically measured using bond term, the oldest technique currently used to manage interest rate risk. Asset management and engagement is a general name rather than suggesting complex techniques that are less risky in a company's risk management workflow. You can familiarize yourself with trading books.
Currency risk, exchange rate risk or currency risk is a "suku" risk that arises due to the fluctuation in the exchange rate of one currency against a currency that is lagenous. A company or investor that owns or operates cross-border businesses will experience this risk if it does not apply protection (coverage). The exchange rate risk offered by foreign currency instruments is the pentangeal risk in foreign investments. This risk arises due to changes in monetary policy and real financial productivity, which will lead to a change in the inflation rate.
dangerous raw materials . You can get information about trading book and bank book.
According to Jones (1996): “As discussed in the second section on portfolio management, the systematic risk investor can create a portfolio that is diversified and eliminates some of the overall risk. Miscellaneous or non-tradable lot. The residual is the diversified portion of a security's total return that is directly attributable to general movements in the market, or the economy in general, or the volatility of market risk. market The higher the beta, the higher the risk of systematic diversification.


3. DISCUSSION
Enterprise-wide risk management deals with the financial risk (implicit risk) associated with financial risk. This risk is operational risk or commercial risk (market risk or commercial risk).
The decline in world crude oil prices, pressure on exports and a number of other consequences in the market risk category. From the identification of these risks, how are the risks measured? I know that some of these risks are qualitative in nature. However, a newer approach to measuring quantitative risks is based on the impact (outcome) of large-small variables resulting from the risks of high-low frequency variables. The impact here can be measured in value for money.
With variable prayer, the risk is reduced in 4 forms (strictly) :

1. high impact and high frequency or frequent risks, particular currency fluctuations or products that are pirated/counterfeit;
2. high-impact but low-frequency risks or triggers, such as natural disasters or the destruction of business centers and transactions;
3. low-impact but high-frequency or frequent risks, such as checking office inventory (eg, calculators and stationery) by company employees for private purposes;
4. Risk with a small impact and low frequency or interval, share the inventory office inspection by outsiders. It should be noted that risks in one business area are different from risks in other business areas. Thus, the main risk of one company may differ from another.

In the process of identifying these risks, one variable can be completed, namely: whether these risks are insured or not. This insurance is because it is one of the means to prevent risks that may arise. Another form of countermeasures are blankets, for example for risks falling into category (1), namely currency values. For category (2) required contingency plans, you can implement a new maintenance service based on the plan.
In fact, there is no risk. What exists is to reduce risk in a transparent and accountable way. What is trying to correct the impact and frequency of the risk to ensure the risk by seeing the high quality risk management and invoicing to be the risk under final control. Continuous communication with stakeholders. Here is the need for a process of learning from what. The answer is not difficult to guess, that is, because of the risk that the cost will not be completed. Consider an incident in which a company owned a shoe factory where a fire broke out in one of the factories. The direct loss from the event is the financial loss due to the affected asset (eg buildings, materials, shoes, boots, etc.). However, you also see indirect losses, such as a business that doesn't work for months until the power goes out.
As another example, there may be a delay in paying debts to suppliers and due to a delay in cash flow, which will ultimately affect the company's creditworthiness and good relations with its business partners. Another example of the risk of being expensive, for example, is a battery company whose products are available to the public from their technology agency. As a result, the community has to recall all the batteries that have been traded, and this means huge costs.
It was then lossy added as in the first example above. The two examples above are pure risk. There is another risk known as price risk. Aluminum rockets are basically aluminum rockets.
The rocket company is probably good at its operations (product finds a market, product and process innovation, work orders, effective cost management) the better the more the more the more the more . No, here goes the danger. Effective risk management can minimize the cost of risk. Specifically, well-informed risks, such as insurance and hedging derivative contracts, can prevent a company from being disrupted by non-operating factors such as pure risk and price risk.
Because of the investment concept, the only significant risk in an asset portfolio is systematic risk, because specific risk can essentially be eliminated through diversification. Thus, an investor who has well diversified his investments in his portfolio can only expect a certain return, because he carries systematic risk, because through effective diversification he owns specific assets. active-asset-asset-asset-asset-asset-asset-asset-asset-asset-asset-asset-active-plant active - active-active -active-active-active-active-active-active-active-active-active-active - active-active-active-active-active-active-active-active-active-active-active-active-active-active-active-active-active-active-active-active-active-active-active-active-active-active-active -active-active-active-active-active-active active-active-active.
So how important is risk management to the prosperity of a prosperous business owner? If the impact of risk management on the discount rate is insignificant, let's look at the benefits for net cash flow. There are at least three benefits of risk management for net cash flow: (1) maintaining stable cash flows, (2) reducing the potential for financial distress for experienced companies, and (3) reducing the potential for major companies to looking for financiers. grass. (MODE)
To manage risk properly, an organization must understand the risks it faces. Therefore, you must understand the great risks you face. Then we also take on as much risk as we have decided.
Sometimes companies don't understand what risk is. For example, a company makes an investment that promises high profits, but turns out to be unsuccessful and is subsequently defrauded.
Each industry has a different type of risk, it is healthy for each student to classify many of these risk categories. This strong industry, for example, companies can experience the risk of business volume by performing aesthetic networks. They also face operational risk as their product is withdrawn from the market, causing them to reduce their sales. You can use R&D with BPOM.
In addition to understanding the nature of the risk, organizations must also understand the magnitude of the risk. Furthermore, you should also understand that each business entity has different risks that may be associated with it. You also need to understand how these risks affect the overall risk.
Of late, businesses need to be more integrated. For example, banks must be able to recognize that the downturn in the aviation industry is caused by risks, including: business volume risk related to travel, credit risk (the risk has been purchased but the tickets have not yet been used).
Strategy formulation is one of the most important business activities and affects all investment returns. A good strategy describes the type of risk taken or is willing to accept risk, the level of risk and the return expected to cover the risk. The other explanation comes from the business unit manager trying to align his strategy with the company's overall strategy by making a trade-off between risk and return.
The desired rate of return varies depending on the manager's risk tolerance. Some people may be willing to risk higher profits. Others may be more conservative. However, at least return the capital value should be.

4. CONCLUSION
Strategically effective, the company's strategic risk must also have different sectors. Life insurance companies, for example, need to know how their profits will change according to economic conditions. So when a downturn scenario occurs where the economy is bad, they have a strategy to deal with it.
Unlike credit risk, which is already negotiable, if the credit is de-secured, then the risk can only be seen in the market for a long time. Example: a bank debtor experiences problems due to a thin macro stature. As a consequence, banks have to restructure the loan with organic interest deductions, for example. This situation is one of the risks faced by the Bank.


Notebook


1. Philip Kotler and Kevin Lane Keller, Marketing Management, Volume 1, Issue 12, Translation, PT. INDEX, Jakarta, 2008
2. Philip Kotler and Kevin Lane Keller, Marketing Management, Volume 2, Issue 12, Translation, PT. INDEX, Jakarta, 2008
3. http://www.vibiznews.com December 6, 2008
4. http://mercubuanacenter.com/info/manajemen/jurnal-management-resiko-20081031920.html accessed December 6

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